On the Attempt to defeat the Kavanaugh Nomination.

The attempt by progressives to deny Brett Kavanaugh a seat on the supreme court by using sexual assault allegations dating back to his teenage years and youth in the 1970s and early 1980s is best described as a 'decapitation strike'. The problem with such decapitation strikes is that they are very risky (eg Bush 2s attempt at a decapitation strike against the Baathist regime in Iraq, a historical disaster). It has to strike the target, a clean shot that takes your opponent down quickly.

Was the use of this strategy of 'decapitation strike' a  good bet or was it a distraction? I leave aside the moral and emotional dimension of the assault allegations and focus on the cold logic of political struggle and calculation. We should remember that the campaign by progressives against Kavanaugh was well underway before the allegations made by Christine Blasey Ford. The campaign by progressives focused -prior to the Blasey Ford allegations- on the risk and danger of Kavanaugh's nomination across a whole range of issues, not just on gender and identity issues. The most important risk in having a neoliberal majority in the supreme court is the damage it will inflict on the lives of working and middle-class Americans and their children, many of whom probably voted for Trump in the last elections. The progressive campaign against Kavanaugh's nomination could have built a united progressive campaign that appealed to those working and middle-class American who voted for Trump. However, the campaign that followed the Blasey Ford allegations focused the anti-Kavanaugh forces exclusively around the issue of sexual assault. Almost every awful thing that Brett Kavanaugh has done in his career as an ultra-conservative judge was lost in the outrage. Unfortunately, in the era of social media, moral outrage about an issue, especially over something that occurred thirty years ago and was never reported in all the ensuing years, has a life lasting about 15 minutes. Let's hope progressives now spend their time mobilising against the neo-liberals at the midterm elections. A neo-conservative majority in the supreme court is a danger for all Americans, even Trump supporters and Conservative voters who are opposed to a woman's right to choose. Progressive strategists should be reaching out to them. Continuing popular mobilisation, a progressive legislature, and perhaps in a couple of years, a socially progressive executive (ie President) will be the best defence against a neo-conservative majority in the US supreme court.
7/10/18